The paradox of oil prices and catastrophic predictions
As I write this, the business world is reeling from the double wammy of oil prices rising faster and higher than anyone predicted (bubble anyone?) . Simultaneously, reports from various oil producers that there is or will soon be bit of shortage are also increasing (although for some odd, self-defeating reason, Environmentalists and Oil-lovers alike all seem to prefer stating that these reports are myths…).
At the same time, the global news is full of environmentalists all screaming as loudly as they can that the catastrophic end of the world due to global warming and melting polar ice caps is nigh because demand is rising ever faster and faster…
Author Thomas Homer-Dixon claimed at the Annual TechAlliance meeting in London that “the situation we face now is staggeringly serious” and “we have to pull out all the stops if we’re going to face these challenges.” He then went on to describe ethanol as ‘terrible technology’ and “with all this energy being used, we’re filling the atmosphere with carbon, causing global warming, which will eventually have dire consequences for the world as the polar ice cap melts.” Where are my floaties?!
At least he did wrap up by suggesting small collaborative efforts to being together brains, science, the markets and politics were essential in saving the world and leave the kiddies a few less challenges when they grow up. Gotta give an environmentalist some brownie points for at least suggesting a a way forward as opposed to just preaching dire and catastrophic consequences if we do nothing! Effectiveness of suggestions: unknown.
But then at the other end of the world, Australian of the year 2007 and scientist, Tim Flannery recently declared global warming was ‘much worse than he thought’ and suggested a bizarre and unusual method to remedy it that would have us living in a desert under green skies. I guess for Australians, the only change is the colour of the sky…
A quick troll of news of other global warming fanatic activity yields more global warming factoids coming hard and fast in a world clearly going to pot… There is the lowdown on warring meteorologists (ie weathermen), controversy in Baltimore as people split hairs over ‘believer’ vs ‘myth’ in articles written by the local newspaper, and the Met Office in the UK has released a gadget freaks dream tool which allows you to see changes in the world due to climate on Google Earth over the next 100 years.
But at the end of the day, demand for oil is rising faster and faster, but how much can be supplied is clearly starting to fall well below demand, and creating shortages – and higher costs than expected to extract faster and harder to obtain oil!
So answer me this – why are the catastrophic-global-warming-polar-ice-caps are melting environmentalists all screaming louder and louder that the end of the world as we know is breathing right down on us – while oil production is heading into a faster, harder and nastier decline than ever expected? Are they also not reading the news about oil shortages etc? Does it not occur to them that rising oil prices and oil shortages are actually really really good things in their fight to try reduce man-made CO2 emissions?!
I guess you just wouldn’t be a true environmentalists if you were happy with the thought the rising oil price will drive the market forces and general masses ever quicker to more cost and energy efficient ways to provide us with the power to drive our cars, home and businesses… It’s a paradox to be sure!
